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Rajdeep Sardesai
New Delhi,UPDATED: May 12, 2024
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https://www.indiatoday.in/opinion/story/opinion-is-the-2024-lok-sabha-election-turning-away-from-bjp-2538155-2024-05-12
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In the last week or so, I’ve been repeatedly asked
a question that’s pregnant with all kinds of possibilities.

Is the 2024 general election turning away from the BJP?

You see, the general impression a month ago was that
the 2024 elections were a done deal, that nothing could
stop a Modi-led BJP from a hattrick of wins.

But now –

low voter turnout in some parts of the country,
ground-level anti-incumbency,
the Prime Minister’s increasingly strident speeches,

references to Adani, Ambani and black money,
jittery markets have convinced more than a few people
–mainly those who, dare I say, desperately want
Prime Minister Modi to be defeated and see an end of
‘Modi Raj’ – that this election is turning out to be
a bit like 2004.

Remember that election when a frontrunner suddenly
appeared to struggle…?

And at the end of the race,
it was a seeming backbencher who quickly caught up.
So has anything changed in the last few weeks
as we’ve reached the halfway stage of Lok Sabha 2024?

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Here are my 10 takeaways as this election reaches
the halfway point:

1. BJP’s ‘Abki baar 400 paar’ DREAM IS OVER –

You would think the 400 mark was always a bit of a
jumla designed to intimidate the Opposition into
giving up even before the race began.

The BJP and its allies are not, as of now, getting 400 or
anywhere close to it. That euphoria is gone,
and so is the bombast of ‘Abki baar 400 paar’.

2. Abki baar no national storyline

This is a very strange election without any dominant
narrative from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. Fear-mongering
about Muslim reservations, for example, no longer has
a national resonance. Neither does the Opposition’s
demand for a cast census.

In 2014, there was an overwhelming desire for change.

In 2019, a muscular leadership was fore-grounded.

Now, the more silent voter shows a mix of hope,
discontent and, fatigue. I’ve met families where
the mother will tell me that Mr Modi has raised India’s
global image, while the daughter tells me she’s
worried about securing a good job. The mother is
looking at the future with confidence, the daughter
with some amount of concern, when actually it
should be the other way around.

3. Abki baar Maharashtra, Karnataka mein problem
   hai yaar –

Both states have witnessed much political turbulence
in recent years, and on the ground. These are the
two states where the Modi factor is being overwhelmed
by localised battles and, especially in Maharashtra,
by poor choice of allies.

Don’t forget, these are the two states which have
also seen much agrarian distress in recent times.

Mangalsutra politics, frankly, has limited traction
here when real issues like water scarcity are not
addressed on an urgent basis.

4. Abki baar no whitewash in Rajasthan,
   Haryana and Bihar –

In 2019 elections, the BJP got 25 out of 25 in Rajasthan,
10 out of 10 in Haryana, 39 out of 40 in Bihar.
While the BJP is still the number one party in all these states,

– no clean sweep seems to be happening this time.
Once again, we are seeing local caste community arithmetic that is undercutting the Modi effect.

5. Abki baar vote share mein loss, seats not sure –

The BJP won 224 seats in 2019 by getting 50 per cent
vote share. That won’t be easy to replicate, but
it does give the BJP a huge head start over its rivals.
While the Opposition is catching up in terms of votes,
I don’t see too many seats shifting, especially in
central India, in states like Madhya Pradesh, or
in west India like Gujarat. These are the BJP’s
“banker states”.

Even in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is facing a
tougher than expected fight in some pockets, vote share
is declining, but seats may not shift much.

6. Abki baar Modi is not the only key –

The BJP won the 2019 polls on the Modi brand power.
This time, as the elections get tied into local battles, Modi’s image – and make no mistake he is still very popular – isn’t always proving to be enough.

The Prime Minister’s speeches don’t receive the kind of euphoric response they once did.

Instead, it’s the BJP’s formidable electoral machine
on the ground – the booth workers, the panna pramukhs,
the Shakti Kendra and mandal heads – each of whom
are a well-oiled, resourceful machine. In the end,
last-mile connectivity matters and this is where
the BJP still has the edge, especially in direct
contests with the Congress, whose on the ground machine
is still rusty in several key states.

7. Abki baar Modi versus who remains
   an unanswered question –

Rahul Gandhi’s “samvidhan khatre mein hai”
(Constitution is in danger) is gathering traction,
especially among Dalit youth, but there is still
very little coordination within the INDIA alliance
and there are still too many opposition leaders
who speak out of turn.

In this social media age, the slightest slip-up is
ruthlessly exploited. So when a leader speaks of a
‘vote jihad’ or someone else seeks a discussion on
inheritance tax, or someone questions the 26/11
terror attack, be sure the Modi machine will exploit
the full tosses offered. Especially when the field is
full of friendly media players ever ready to target
the opposition for any slip-up. For the urban
middle class, stable leadership is still Modi’s USP.

8. Abki baar Ram nahi, rashan –

The BJP went into this election on the back of its
Ram Mandir elation. There was a belief that Ram Lalla
would deliver the votes. Guess what? It’s not Ram,
but ration that’s probably saving them from
creeping anti-incumbency.

The poor are fatigued and disillusioned, steady rozgaar (employment) remains a major concern. But they at least have 5 kg of free ration in their homes.
That’s the one factor that could yet count in the end.
The ‘labharthi’ or beneficiary voter is Modi’s trump card.

9. Abki baar Mahila matters, not Muslims –

The Hindu-Muslim dog whistles might help the BJP
consolidate its core voters but the real key vote bank
is the Mahila. The woman voter is proving decisive.
The Modi government may not have delivered on the
jobs front but women-centric welfare schemes are still
seen as a strong suit for his government. Women are
the PM’s potential brahmastra.

10. Abki baar Mission 272, not 400 –

In a sense, the wheel has come full circle.
In 2014, when PM Modi first came to power,
the entire chatter was around whether the BJP could
get a simple majority on its own — Mission 272
as it was called. Now, the BJP is back to its original mission:

• forget 400 paar, it’s now about 272 paar.

The key is to minimise losses in Maharashtra, Bihar
and Karnataka, keep UP intact, add a few in Odisha,
Assam, keep fingers crossed on Bengal and Rajasthan
and hope that all else falls in place.

Will it happen…? Yes, for now, the BJP remains
in pole position but the gap isn’t as wide as it was
maybe a few months ago. Could anything change…?
Unlikely. But when you set 400 as your initial target
and are now playing for 280, then you know you can’t
afford any more mistakes.

The 2024 election pitch has turned but very slowly.
Always remember, there are two teams who bat
on a wicket. And while the BJP no longer looks like a
world-beating side, the Opposition still isn’t playing
like a team that can cause a big upset.

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